When modelling species distribution, there is most of the time an uncertainty of what is actually modelled :

What can be evaluated is how much the modelisation results are consistent with what is known and observed, and how much variability is present in the results in function of modelling choices.

Variability - within the evaluation / importance of variables

Single and ensemble models can be evaluated by several available evaluation metrics, and the importance of variables can be calculated through several repetitions (see metric.eval and var.import parameters in BIOMOD_Modeling and BIOMOD_EnsembleModeling).

Variability in evaluation and importance values can come from the parametrisation of different elements of the modelling :

Variability - within the predictions

Making projections, either for single or ensemble models, can produce two additional sources of variability in results that can be explored through two parameters :